Museveni runaway favorite at 60.9%, new poll shows

Museveni Leads Bobi Wine across most regions ahead of Presidential Elections, new poll shows

Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | As Uganda goes to the polls in five days’ time, a new national opinion poll has indicated National Resistance Movement flagbearer and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni as a runaway favourite to beat his main challenger National Unity Platform (NUP) flag bearer Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, commonly known as Bobi Wine.

The poll, whose methodology and full results were released today by the Development Watch Centre (DWC) covers the period 19 November to 16 December 2025 and indicates that Museveni has the support of 60.94 percent of respondents nationally. Bobi Wine has the support of 35.26 percent nationally.

The poll, which involved interviews with 3,758 respondents in 42 districts spread across 12 of the country’s sub regions, indicates that Museveni leads Bobi Wine in 11 of 12 subregions sampled.

In Bunyoro, Museveni leads with 70.00 percent against Bobi Wine’s 25.00 percent. In Karamoja, Museveni’s lead is at 68.90 percent against 26.77 percent for Bobi Wine. Ankole (67.39 percent: 30.21 percent), Lango (67.18 percent: 31.27 percent) are also strongholds for Museveni where his lead over Bobi Wine is wide. Bobi Wine is leading only in the Kampala subregion with 55.16 percent of respondents’ support against 42.26 percent for Museveni.

“We are going by the political attitudes of the respondents at the time of this research. If that political space remains the same until the election date, the numbers indicate President Museveni will likely be declared the winner by an outright majority on 15 January and will therefore avoid a second-round run-off,” Dr Allawi Ssemanda, a research fellow at DWC noted.

Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) candidate Gen Mugisha Muntu placed third nationally with 2.21 percent against Nathan Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), who placed fourth nationally with 1.33 percent. Other candidates had marginal shares of the vote nationally, such as Mubarak Munyagwa with 0.16 percent, Robert Kasibante 0.05 percent, Joseph Mabirizi and Frank Bulira with 0.03 percent each.

The poll did not cover two subregions – West Nile and Bugisu. Researchers say while it would have affected the rankings of individual candidates and boosted Mafabi’s figures given that Bugisu is his home region, its inclusion in the survey would not have altered the rankings of the leading candidates.

Demographic Patterns

The data shows a distinct generation gap among voters. Bobi Wine has the most support among young people aged 18 to 35, in which he leads with 53 percent to Museveni’s 43.93. Museveni’s support rises consistently with age groups, increasing to 61 percent among the 46 to 56 age group, and finally peaking with the 57 and up cohort at 72 percent.

The veteran president also leads among female voters in all areas. Female respondents showed 62.27 percent support for Museveni, while 34.09 percent supported Bobi Wine. Male intent to turn out to vote was slightly higher, but preferences followed the national pattern closely.

Key Voter Concerns

Service delivery was found to be the number one issue that will determine voters’ choice at the polls. The proportion of the respondents who selected it as such is 37.06 percent. Youth unemployment follows closely at 32.8 percent while corruption comes at third at 25.9 percent. The issues of security and the rule of law were the least selected determinants of voting by the respondents.

🟥 Candidates’ support in the 12 sub-regions of Uganda

Voter Readiness and Methodology

In terms of the readiness of the voters ahead of polling day scheduled for 15 January 2026 the poll shows that Ugandans are ready to vote. The polls show that more than 80 percent of women and close to 90 percent of the male respondents say they are going to vote.

The poll data was collected only through the method of face-to-face interviews. The target sample of the poll was 4,000 respondents, out of which 3,758 were successfully interviewed. The response rate is 93.95 percent. In terms of the geographical distribution of the respondents, rural areas contributed 60.98 percent of the respondents, while urban areas provided 39.02 percent of the respondents.

“The respondents were selected from the 42 districts which were randomly selected from 12 sub regions,” reads the report in parts.   These are Acholi, Ankole, Bukedi, Busoga, Buganda, Bunyoro, Kampala, Karamoja, Kigezi, Lango, Rwenzori and Teso. “The response rate is well above internationally accepted standards for scientific research and well in excess of Roscoe’s (1975) rule of thumb of a sample size between 30 and 500 for social science research,” the DWC report emphasised.

According to this poll, Museveni polls better than Bobi Wine in all 12 but 1. In Bunyoro, Lango, Karamoja, and Ankole, Museveni is ahead of Bobi Wine by double digits polling at 70%, 67.18%, 68.90% and 67.39 respectively. While Bobi Wine polled 28.15, 31.27, 28.98%, and 25.00% respectively. Bobi Wine leads Museveni with Bobi scoring 55.16% against Museveni’s 42.26%.

Other regions include Teso with Museveni at 64.44 against Bobi Wine’s 33.39%, Rwenzori subregion, Museveni polled 54.82 against Mobi Wine’s 41.53%, Kigezi Museveni 59.57% while Bobi polled at 32.18%. In Buganda, Museveni polled 60.00% against Bobi Wine’s 38.14, in Busoga M7 57.19 against Bobi’s 33.54 while in 67.39 for Museveni and 25.00% for Bobi Wine and in Acholi 60.39 for Museveni with Bobi Wine’s score being 35.29%.

The Development Watch Centre added that international response rate guidelines for social science research are well met.

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